The morning after

We are down to the “penalty kicks” in the Mexican election. The difference separating the two key contenders is just over half of one percent (around 300 thousand votes) in favor of Filipe Calderon – the PAN centrist, pro-business candidate who appears to have all the charisma of a goldfish but will probably make a fine President. It is now up to the Elections Commission (IFE) to do a recount, which begins today, and the results will likely be known by the weekend. Some papers north of the border, (a very common expression here, usually expressed simply as “NOB”), are claiming that Mexico is now in a “crisis”. However, there is little sense of urgency involved at this stage. The new government regardless of its stripes would not take over until the fall. Most Mexicans, including their media, seem to be taking it all in stride.

There are some very disappointed folks on the left who were hoping for a much clearer result in favor of their populist candidate, Andres Manuel Obrador. They, like their left wing-nut brethren worldwide, are finding it difficult to understand how any part of the electorate can be stupid enough to vote for anyone but their candidate. Their talking heads are claiming a conspiracy, something quite understandable given the history of elections in this country.

Conservatives are naturally claiming a “fait acompli” that will only be confirmed by the recount. Their spokesmen are saying Calderon as President will make much better progress on the “Fox agenda”. This because the PAN will now have a (small) majority in the Congress, the absence of which stymied much of what Fox had promised and that left some earlier PAN supporters disappointed with the his record.

Elections in Mexico occur always on a Sunday. The dry law, prohibiting sale of alcohol, comes into effect from six in the morning of election day till six at night – after the polls close. An even better law prohibits politicking after the Wednesday preceding an election. Accounts from independent observers, indicate this election was fairly run, if somewhat badly managed in some places. Nevertheless, left-wing editorials NOB acknowledge the conspiracy theories while right-wing ones are extolling the virtues of a Calderon victory – good for business, part of the North American community, on the right track in line with Canada and USA and the global agenda.

In fact there is no crisis here yet. The IFE (Elections Commission) is well structured, set up and approved by a bipartisan commission in 1991, based on similar institutions in US, Germany and Canada, among others. It’s work and the steps it must go thru to determine the winner of this election are fully transparent and clearly laid out. The crisis could come if one of the parties does not like the result and decides to take their battle to the streets. Then people could start getting hurt.

My guess is that even in this fragile democracy (only their second real election experience since 1910) will survive this. My view is based very simply on the ever-present Mexican sense of humor. In Germany, after being knocked out by Argentina in the second round of the World Cup the Mexicans did not come home. They continued to party in the streets around the stadiums. Most agreed they did not really expect the Mx team to go much further and were just happy to be able to cheer them to the second round. They point out that most of the TV hype for a World Cup win is sponsored by Corona (or some other beer). One TV station with crew in Germany set up a straw poll before the election to see how Germans would vote in Mexico. They had cardboard statues of the 3 main contenders (labeled A, B and C) and fake ballots complete with ballot box. Germans seemed to take well to the comedy and were willing to vote without the benefit of any knowledge - much like many Mexicans the commentators admitted.

At a football round table of talking heads on one popular TV station, where a half dozen ex-jocks discuss in agonizing detail the finer points of each player, each team and each play in each match there is always a segment where a special guest appears for some much needed comic relief. The football commentators seem a bit out of place in this scene but retain stoic smiles all. Clearly the audiences love it (nothing happens in the Mx media that is without feedback analyses – it’s a business!) as it goes on for a full ten minutes. The best was the PEPI candidate (Party for the free expression of irrelevant opinion). Perfect!